Papers
Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models
MPhil Thesis, 2008
The partial information rational expectations solution to a general linear multivariate expectational macro-model is found when agents are uncertain about the true values of the model’s parameters. Necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to the full information rational expectations solution are given, and the core of an algorithm for the Bayesian updating of beliefs is provided. In the course of this a new class of full information rational expectations equilibria is described and some of its desirable properties proven.
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Warming and Dimming: An Econometric Assessment of Climate Change
Co-authored with Victoria Prowse, James Reade, Simon Quinn, Melissa Dell and Thomas Flury. Published in Aenorm, 2007
Global warming is a serious concern for policy in the present context. In this research, we explore the different effects of carbon dioxide and aerosols upon that process. Carbon dioxide is known to have a deleterious effect upon climate. Before now, political action taken to fight global warming has aimed mainly at reducing the emission of carbon dioxide. Nobel prize winning chemist Paul Crutzen has proposed an alternative and highly controversial way of fighting global warming: He has suggested decreasing the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth by artifi cially increasing the level of aerosols in the stratosphere. By increasing pollution, more solar radiation is directly reflected back into space and the surface of the earth receives less energy and hence there is less warming.
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